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I'm curious about this topic. I sense there will be HUGE changes in 2025 and any time there are dramatic changes, I think we each should be thinking about how we can maximize our chances to not just survive, but to thrive.
I think the following is likely, based on what I have heard:
1. Tariffs and deportation of agricultural and construction workers will cause very significant inflation on most goods and services in the USA
2. Many US stocks will plummet when consumers are focusing their spending on the bare essentials and stop purchasing non-essentials. Jobs will also be lost in non-essential industries.
3. When/if the Republicans are successful in slashing the federal workforce, the DMV area will see a regional recession/depression that will especially hurt small local businesses and lower home values as many federal workers lose their jobs.
4. In a non-economic sense, anyone who is "different" or even female will feel unsafe
I'm sure there's more, but I don't mean for this to be a list of grievances or complaints. I am really more interested in how best to address these things so we can come out on top. I'm looking for positive suggestions
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Yesterday, my wife and I donated $1,000 to the ACLU to help fund the legal resistance against the plans of the Republicans. (edit: this is a lot of money for us, and I may regret it, but I am focusing on my values, and this is one of them)
And I'm trying to renew connections with my circle of friends locally. I think the wedges that have been driven between americans to divide us need to be actively resisted, and the best way to do that is to build social bonds. This is very minor, but after about 15 years of blowing this off, were sending Christmas cards again.
Last edited by glatt (12/06/2024 9:28 am)
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Thinking financially, for myself, I worry about the balance of my 401K, which is mostly stocks, and the value of the US dollars in my nest egg.
I've been thinking of hedges against inflation and a market decline and came up with the following possibilities:
1. foreign stocks ETFs if those countries are not experiencing downturn as well
2. Materials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities stocks
3. T-Bills, but timing is critical. Have to wait for the rates to go up. And do NOT buy bond market funds.
4. Foreign currencies (Pound, Canadian Dollar, Euro, Australian Dollar, Singapore Dollar) if they are not experiencing inflation - see Schwab's list of Currency ETFs: FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXY, FXF
5. precious metals
see SPDR Gold Shares (GLD); iShares Gold Trust (IAU); VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX); Aberdeen Standard Gold ETF (SGOL)
6. Real Estate (aka REIT ETFs) REITs are kinda evil though, even though they will likely be on fire.
7. Bitcoin
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I'd love to hear your thoughts on preparing for 2025.
We are also going to buy a new roof, if we can get it scheduled, as soon as possible.
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My belief is that the oligarchs are on the cusp of doing a massive money grab from the middle class, and I want to stick my arm out and scoop some of that wealth into my lap as it flows uphill.
The idea is the oligarchs crash the economy and then swoop in with their cash reserves and buy stocks and real estate at rock bottom prices, because they are the only ones with money on hand after the storm.
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I'm seeing things similarly.
We've moved some money out of the stock market and into our property up North. We signed a contract for our cabin kit and paid our down payment. Those materials should be in country before the likely upcoming economic contraction. I don't know how much of the lumber will be Canadian. Most of the stick lumber in my floor system was Canadian sourced since our local yard doesn't have a lot of production capacity. We're doing as much as we can on our own but may tap the Amish for some work.
Community is a part of our planning. The northern place is not setup as well for gardening and animals but is better in neighborliness.
We are both considering working at a reduced level in retirement. That could be more critical if the oligarchs wreck the stock market. We've always ridden these things out and gained from them so panic must be avoided. Market timing is not something I want to try. SS is being targeted and lately they've been floating ending it without a payout at all. This will force some belt tightening but we're better off than our age mates generally.
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Ironically, I am looking forward to things getting worse. Things had to get worse under Nixon before Americans starting becoming moderates again. Trump installing the most incompetent extremist - loyal only to him and not to America - has become necessary for the many (educated by tweets and podcasts) to finally start learning how to think in an intelligent manner.
Perfect example was Saddam's WMDs. How many so hated the American serviceman as to believe that obvious lie. We need things to get real bad in the next four years. Otherwise things will only continue to become worse in eight years.
How many are so ignorant as to not even know why Putin will be winning. By doing what Hitler did. And why Boeing started becoming an anti-American company over 20 years ago.
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Trump got nowhere near a "landslide," but the fact that any one at all voted for him after his first go around is more than chilling.
He will take it as a mandate to do whatever he wants and collect as crazy a bunch of assholes as he can to help him.
How long our institutions can survive the onslaught is the only question.
The very small majorities in Congress gives some hope. Will there be enough sane Republicans to slow him down?
Kind of pessimistic, me.
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Yeah, I'm beyond the Monday morning quarterbacking. Plenty of other places to gripe. Politics is pointless now.
What's the game plan to weather the storm?
I showed mine. Let's see yours.
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In a non-economic sense, anyone who is "different" or even female will feel unsafe
My daughter and I have established code words for certain situations she may find herself in, because 1.) some states have already made it a crime to travel to another state to do something entirely legal in that state, and 2.) tech companies have already turned over private messages between a mother and daughter discussing said situation, in order to help convict the mother as an accessory.
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Read my signature, that says it all.
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You may have gleaned from some of the above replies that this matter is age dependent, at least for anyone who doesn’t already have way more than enough money to last the rest of their lives. Conventional wisdom is that being retirement age means playing it safe with savings and just cutting losses rather than trying to succeed at greater risk. Don’t gamble with what you can’t afford to lose.
Increasing costs can easily outpace getting better investment returns. The value of avoiding price increases was recognized in expediting plans for a new roof and a cabin kit. Getting big ticket durable items now is good; but, don’t forget expendable and expendable-durable items. Price increases on those can nickel & dime you to death in little time. People of any age can benefit by stocking up on routinely used items at today’s prices. That includes consumables, clothing, small appliances, maintenance supplies… and anything else that may get used up or worn out over the next few years.
For example: Textiles - I have clothes for work and clothes for casual wear in my closet. I also already have a reserve of seven complete changes of cloths, suitable for either, stored away in a duffle bag so that when I need new cloths using those will give me time to shop for replacements at good prices rather than paying top dollar on the spur of the moment. Appliances - I already have some extra small appliances like an iron and coffee maker, items with heating elements that can burn out, put away in a storage basket. Many small appliances are made in China.
When inflation hits, it’s good to already have enough “stuff” to weather the increased cost of living. After that’s taken care of, then it’s time to speculate for succeeding. YMMV, as said earlier, it’s age dependent.
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Good stuff, Anon. I forgot about clothes. Fortunately, I don't chase fashion. So anything i buy today I would be happy to wear in 10 years.
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Clodfobble wrote:
In a non-economic sense, anyone who is "different" or even female will feel unsafe
My daughter and I have established code words for certain situations she may find herself in, because 1.) some states have already made it a crime to travel to another state to do something entirely legal in that state, and 2.) tech companies have already turned over private messages between a mother and daughter discussing said situation, in order to help convict the mother as an accessory.
This is good.
I know almost nothing about these things, but my wife was talking about stocking up on Plan B or whatever the various medications are and getting a little stockpile together to distribute as needed in case they are outlawed. We are too old to need it for ourselves.
Over the counter pregnancy tests are confidential, and if they go away then every pregnancy will be in the system and monitored by the government. Maybe stock up on a handful of tests and Plan B. Or Mifepristone (If I Googled that correctly just now.)
My brother lives in Canada, and as long as the border stays open, then my family members can always take family visits to see him.
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I second the clothes thing. I’m pretty much jeans and t-shirts so that shouldn’t be bad. There’s a good thrift store near the new place with a remarkable amount of stock. I’ve noticed some of the urban ones are about fashion so you need to check these places out to measure their value.
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tw wrote:
And why Boeing started becoming an anti-American company over 20 years ago.
Astronauts still stuck in space. Rockets that do not work. 737 Max disaster. Next model 777 is years behind schedule. Suspect parts routinely in 787 airplanes. Corporate HQ moved from where the work gets done to Washington DC. Even a T-7 jet trainer is losing money. Boeing has only delivered a few planes. Air Force needs 350 to replace T-38 trainers.
Even the KC-46 air refueling tanker program is almost another $billion loss. Somehow they could not make a profit on a well proven plane - a 767. Meanwhile an Airbus tanker was the technically superior airplane.
Replacement for two Air Force One's is now a multi-billion dollar loss. Long behind schedule. Like everything Boeing has started since 2001, even financial losses from that program are massive.
Airbus will deliver 770 planes this year. Would deliver more. Airlines what the better Airbus products. Airbus already has too many orders. Boeing will probably deliver less than 400 planes. Only reason many orders are not canceled? Airbus cannot make more of what the airlines want. Reliable planes. Airbus has ordered for every plane they can make until 2029.
MBAs from Jack Welch's GE took over and ran McDonnell Douglas into the ground. Then took over Boeing in 2001. Demonstrated is what MBAs do when implementing cost controls (even in the Federal government). Resulting losses will appear four and 20 years later. What business school graduates in Boeing or in the White House routinely do.
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tw wrote:
Resulting losses will appear four and 20 years later.
You won't believe it, but this is exactly the same number of blackbirds I baked in my pie.
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We were first taught this stuff as kids. Then liars got us to forget it.
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What we were taught as kids is officially fake news.
The new order of the day is, "me me me first, ƒuck everybody else"
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tw, it sounds to me like you are arguing for Musk to take over NASA with his private company. Did you mean to do that?
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I am arguing that things must get many times worse. Before an American public realizes that social media lies routinely. And most then realize how bad they have made things.
Remember what Urban Guerilla said. He wanted to fuck things up. Most Americans must learn why that is bad before they will start thinking like educated voters. Trump is doing exactly what the least educated minority want. With chain saw intelligence. If NASA must be "fucked up" to get us to learn, then (unfortunately) that is necessary.
Most Americans are brainwashed by same techniques that my father did. To prove without doubt that smoking cigarettes increased health. Soundbites. Now called tweets.
How many are so brainwashed as to believe Saddam had WMDs? We saw in the original Cellar how easily so many are brainwashed by obvious lies. Things must get massively bad before those, educated by emotions, finally realize they have screwed themselves and the world.
One who fails to learn lessons of history are doomed to repeat it. Unfortunately a question. Will we need a nuclear war to finally restore sanity? Maybe. Things must get bad before the 'book burners' are finally forced to learn reality.
Flint makes a bluntly obvious point. The Constitution was never about your rights. It was always about the rights of eveyone else. If their rights are not protected, then you have no rights. Constitutions is about protecting the rights, first and formost, about all others. And so Guantanamo (Gestapo style treatment) is now acceptable in America. "Me, Me, Me" is the new mantra. And will be until things get many times worse.
Amazing that not everyone hates what extremists advocate - Gitmo. Thinks have yet to get bad. Things must get real bad. Hopefully not to the point of the nuking of an American city. But even that may be necessary.
Last edited by tw (2/21/2025 10:49 am)
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It’s sounding more and more like the work of mischievous spirits. Looks like we’re going to have to call Ghostbusters. Until they get here, we’ll have to fend for ourselves. I’m not worried though. I have my trusty 155mm Howitzer and I’ve mastered the art of the quick draw with it. I say… bring ‘em on.
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Flint wrote:
What we were taught as kids is officially fake news.
The new order of the day is, "me me me first, ƒuck everybody else"
Today (and for the next week or so) my job involved reading people's pre-election opinion surveys. I was horrified. You are not wrong. WTF happened to humanity?
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I'm female, so is my daughter. We are at risk. Our very being has been devalued, our human rights are being eroded.
My job is at risk, it is dependent on research funded by the NIH (and now other government research organizations)
I will be coming out fighting, I just haven't figured out how yet. I've been in the UK helping Banana Lady navigate a health crisis, so has my daughter. Now we're back (Banana Lady is doing good) and we are ready to kick ass.
I suspect my role will be volunteering in some organizational capacity. I'm good at it and it's what I know.
Financially....... mostly head-in-sand tbh. I already shop like the nuclear holocaust is imminent (brought up by WWII era grandparents)