The Cellar » Russian Ukraine war

tw · 2/20/2022 6:57 pm

Now that it will not distract from China’s Olympics, Putin will attack Ukraine. But maybe not for reasons that are obvious.

Putin is a Chess player. One threatens a Queen to take a Rook. He has been playing this game for two decades now. Starting with destruction of independent news services which began in 2000 with a mysterious fire in the Ostankino tower. Then attacks on NTV for tax evasion. Eliminating all management by 2004. Turning independent NTV into another mouthpiece for the government.

While successfully jailing any democratic opposition. How many still remember who Alexei Navalny is? Or what happened to him? And to other democratic challengers such as Kasparov and the Russia of the Future party?

To make sure that other nations know how determined Putin is, ex-Russian spies have been sickened or killed while in western nations. Letting less adversarial nations know that Putin can cause problems anywhere if not friendly enough. All part of that larger Chess game.

Putin attempted, bit by bit, to restore the Russian empire. While using perestroika as a cover for accessing and learning western technologies.

For example, all control for the ISS is performed in Russia. The Russia module, in the ISS, is designed to control all ISS functions. Can disconnect and operate independent from the rest of the ISS. While all space technologies are learned / obtained.

Europe was made more dependent on Russia energy by bypassing potential bottlenecks such as Ukraine. Making, for example, Germany 50% dependent on Russia methane.

Testing the resolve of western leaning nations by, for example, invading Georgia 12 years ago to massively destroy much of that nations western provided weapons and extracting Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia. Without suffering any consequences.

Threatening Baltic nations with numerous cyber-attacks to test their NATO resolve. And to a lesser extent, doing same to Poland. Messages not lost on Sweden abd Finland.

Openly promoting the dictator in Belaus by even (lately) putting down an uprising after elections were stolen. Alexander Lukashenko, who would sometimes criticize Putin, now only has praises for him.

Protecting a dictator in Kazakhstan while making that nation's major energy resources dependent on Russia and Azerbaijan distribution channels.
(continues in next post)

Last edited by tw (2/20/2022 7:01 pm)

tw · 2/20/2022 6:57 pm

Has successfully reduced western influence in Turkmenistan.

Has successfully made Azerbaijan dependent on Russian support especially against Armenia.

Has successfully started a pro-Russian movement in Hungry.

Has been using social media in the Balkans that has, recently, reignited ethnic hatred between Serbs and other groups - especially in Bosnia.

Has openly encouraged closer relations with Turkey. Recently) has been successful including sales of advance weapons to that nation. Resulting in cancelations of F-35 sales to Turkey due to apparent diminished security that weapons system. And another major energy pipeline.

Ukraine has been demanding admission to NATO. That cannot happen fast enough. Since an invasion of Ukraine will probably be a massive attack south from Belarus, through Chernobyl, on both sides of the Kyiv reservoir to topple Ukrainian's democratic government.

Whether Putin will or will need to move west towards Lviv is unknown.

Putin is also trying to exploit a pacifist nature in the new German government that even refused to pro\vide Ukraine with what it needs most - weapons. Germany being the world's third largest supplier of such weapons. And can obstruct any other nation of providing those weapons to Ukraine.

Putin is also testing the resolve of Americans by undermining Biden in this year’s elections. Since Trump was an ideal president for Putin.

We know, for example, that Trump even gave the Russian Foreign Minister and their Ambassador some most sensitive British secrets while in the Oval Office. Wants all deals to only be binary - so that he can take advantage of counter parties. Is easily manipulated due to a 30 second attention span and an inflated ego.

Putin types easily manipulate such people. As both Kim and Xi have also demonstrated. More so, Trump openly advocated leaving NATO. And did much to create disunity among NATO nations. Disunity that Putin was probably counting on enhancing with a Ukraine invasion. That might have been a strategic mistake. But not if he gets Trump back. All part of the Chess game.

Fortunately, Putin may have made one mistake. He did not expect Biden and others rally NATO in appreciating its purpose. He probably expected so much disunity (ie what Macron said over the past two years, a pacifist attitude of Germany’s Chancellor Scholz, and destructive attitudes and political problems of Boris Johnson) to further weaken NATO.

What happens in Ukraine will also play well for Xi. Who has already entrenched his occupation of the entire South China Sea from beaches of Vietnam, through Indonesia, to beaches of Philippines. Who attempted same in the Sendai Islands only to encounter unexpected Japanese determination. Has successfully purchased control of Europe’s six biggest ports. Is the major investor in Africa. Is expanding the Silk Road and obtaining military bases in the Indian Ocean. Has successfully taken control of Hong Kong. Has now openly told America that their invasion of Taiwan will mean war with America if America intervenes. Their new attitude encouraged even with Putin doing same.

Trump destroyed a well-designed coordination of East Asian opposition to China. Opposition that was predicated on China opening their markets and information channels.

Someone here once naïvely said that the internet is virtual; cannot be stopped. Examples (such as what exists in Pennsauken NJ) made that myth obvious. A Great Firewall of China demonstrates that same reality. What Putin is doing only encourages Xi's objectives that are made so much easier based upon what happened in the past 20 years. Including the American military disaster in Iraq and a military defeat in Afghanistan.

If not obvious, we are back when Churchill gave a famous speech in Missouri. A second Cold War, but in a much weaker position. Due to stupidity in so many fiascos (Iraq, Afghanistan) and a serious loss of economic strength in so many high tech industries. With a much greater dependence on so many allies.

Last edited by tw (2/20/2022 7:07 pm)

xoxoxoBruce · 2/21/2022 11:10 pm

But China is our friend, they'll protect us from that bad Putin.

griff · 2/22/2022 7:11 am

I'm beginning to think he's not history's white hat.

griff · 2/22/2022 7:20 am

I have decided this is a good time to apply Clod's model of not getting "unsustainably invested". Yep, he is a bad fucker but I hired a State Department and Defense Department to deal with him. From what I see, they've done a terrible job but that's on them.

Limey · 2/22/2022 9:24 am

griff wrote:
I have decided this is a good time to apply Clod's model of not getting "unsustainably invested". Yep, he is a bad fucker but I hired a State Department and Defense Department to deal with him. From what I see, they've done a terrible job but that's on them.

What a great way to express how I deal with all this shit, too.

tw · 2/22/2022 12:26 pm

griff wrote:
From what I see, they've done a terrible job but that's on them.

They have done everything that America has the power to do. We do not run the world. Things only get worse when one has emotions about these event. The most adults do not have any emotions about this. See this as just a normal event in life that only gets worse when it is ignored.

If the State Dept and DoD did it wrong, then what did they do wrong? If that question cannot be answered, then casting blame is unjustified. Living - being a human - means things always get bad. Living means humans must constantly fix new problems.

When people stay uniformed, then wars and dead Americans increase significantly. Unfortunately so many let extremists run this country. Therefore America has been in constant war now most every year for the past 30 years. Since so many do not pay attention, then extremists were set free to make things worse. Mission Accomplished, An American surrender in Afghanistan in 2005. The second American surrender in Afghanistan in 2020. Yeman, Sudan, Burma, the Sprately Islands, global warming. All things that make and define living.

So many other events directly traceable to Americans that ignored or did not learn from blatant mistakes. Such as Col Oliver North's actions resulting in 200 dead Marines in Lebanon. Gestapo style torture in Iran and Guantanamo. Events that make the world unsafe for all Americans. That existed because so many wanted to view it all emotionally (like an ostrich) rather than logically. Therefore remain uninformed (also called quitters).

So many are tired only because we let extremists make things worse. Ie keep us constantly in wars unjustified or lost due to extremism. (ie Nazi torture techniques).

Nothing in those top two posts should create emotion. Fatigue is due to problems only made worse by people who could not be bothered. Logical concern must exist. Including planning for a new Cold War.

We did not have the power to avert Putin. Fortunately we had enough patriotic (moderate) Americans who understood and therefore obstructed Trump's attempts to leave NATO.

Ignore it today and it will only be many times worse tomorrow. Those who do not want it to get worse already know the Cold War has restarted.

Last edited by tw (2/22/2022 12:37 pm)

tw · 2/23/2022 7:12 pm

Latest satellite images suggest the invasion of Ukraine will occur down the east side of a Kyiv reservoir from Belarus. Objective is to dethrone the current government,. Then do to Ukraine as what happened in Czechoslavkia or Hungry some 50 plus years ago. One learns from history.

Welcome to something equivalent to the game called Risk or to Chess. It causes no emotions in adults. But, unlike those board games, we must live with the results.

Entertainment is always based in trying to guess what will happen next or who did the murder. Called adult entertainment. What is/will be happening in Ukraine is no different than watching a TV show "Columbo". You know who is did the murder. The question is how it will be solved - will happen.

Last edited by tw (2/23/2022 7:15 pm)

tw · 2/24/2022 2:56 pm

Ukrainian army will be overrun. In part, because Ukraine has minimal air support that will be quickly eliminated today. So a question, that must already be answered: will divisions of Ukrainian army units be permitted to flee to Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Hungry, and Poland. Or left to be slaughtered by Russians on Ukraine's western borders.

Meanwhile, extensive use of economic sanctions means those will not be very effective. Putin has been spending the ten plus previous years developing systems that make such irrelevant. For example, he has already replaced both Visa and Master Card with other systems. That even critics acknowledge, in some ways, are now superior to Visa and MasterCard.

The naive would claim "The internet if virtual. It cannot be stoppe". It was so stopped that China had to make a crack in that Great China Firewall to permit Olympians some access to the outside world.

Putin's success in stopping the internet is so successful for so many obvious reasons. Such as taking over Domain Name Servers. Replacing many web sites with look alikes. Even successfully suing Google for $98 million.

Just another example of what Hitler demonstrated so that the most naive will automatically and only believe what he says. An Iron Curtain will now descend over Ukraine. Since the internet is always and easily stopped.

Putin has also succeeded in creating financial payment method that will bypass sanctions by the US, Japan, the EU, Britain, and Australia. One channel he will use is China.

The US and western allies had little leverage. Since Ukraine failed to become a member of NATO. Made even worse because most Ukrainians, until this last week, said they knew Russia would never attack. Denials (based only in a myth about being brothers) were only based in emotions. So many therefore could not bother to see obvious facts. That said Putin was planning this atack for years.

Maybe it got the attention of other countries such as Austria, Finland, Ireland, Cyprus, and Sweden.

glatt · 2/24/2022 9:04 pm

Notice how the U.S. stock market has been crashing before the actual invasion, and then sharply rose once the invasion happened? The market hates uncertainty, and loves to know what is going on, even if it's something bad.

BigV · 2/24/2022 10:37 pm

what a shitshow

watched this:, start at 8:05

INSTANTLY REMINDED OF THIS:

monster · 2/24/2022 11:29 pm

Limey wrote:
griff wrote:
I have decided this is a good time to apply Clod's model of not getting "unsustainably invested". Yep, he is a bad fucker but I hired a State Department and Defense Department to deal with him. From what I see, they've done a terrible job but that's on them.
What a great way to express how I deal with all this shit, too.

thirded but... ...so many innocent lives in danger. Hard not to emotionally invest

monster · 2/24/2022 11:32 pm

glatt wrote:
Notice how the U.S. stock market has been crashing before the actual invasion, and then sharply rose once the invasion happened? The market hates uncertainty, and loves to know what is going on, even if it's something bad.

not seeing the raise where it matters for me yet. But I hate all this financial shit. I don't want to be rich, I just want not to be cleaning toilets to pay the rent for my double-wide when I'm 80

griff · 2/25/2022 8:34 am

monster wrote:
Limey wrote:
griff wrote:
I have decided this is a good time to apply Clod's model of not getting "unsustainably invested". Yep, he is a bad fucker but I hired a State Department and Defense Department to deal with him. From what I see, they've done a terrible job but that's on them.
What a great way to express how I deal with all this shit, too.

thirded but... ...so many innocent lives in danger. Hard not to emotionally invest

I'm right there with you, Doctors Without Borders is my go to charity. I'm trying to keep my head out of it not my heart.

tw · 2/25/2022 10:15 am

The cold war gets hotter. Every head should be paying attention.

Russian grain will be subject to sanctions. Meaning Russia, a major world exporter, loses many markets. Putin (a chess player) had addressed that problem. Recently announced, China has committed to buying all of Russia's grain, if necessary.

Only ostriches are ignoring what was happening over the past twenty years. When, for example, China built up islands in the South China Sea to take control of the entire South China Sea. All part of a process of isolating (ie inserting puppet governments in) Vietnam, Indonesia, Burma, Thailand, and Philippines. And to invade Taiwan (therefore getting the best of America's semiconductor technologies). And to isolate Japan.

Someone here once complained that the Spratly Islands were an unjustified emotion. Ukraine is an obvious tip of a large iceberg that has been ongoing to 20 years.

Meanwhile, Trump and other extremists once praised and have again praised Putin. All part of a problem called a new Cold War. Since most do not remember the Cuban Missile and Berlin crisis, then we are doomed to repeat it.

henry_quirk · 2/25/2022 2:58 pm

Vladimir played Joseph like a...

https://rumble.com/embed/vt66hn/?pub=4

glatt · 2/25/2022 5:51 pm

Got an email at work today that we can send instructions to Canadian counsel if we need to get shit done in Russia. Gotta love multinational law firms with arms in all the countries. Sanctions smanctions.

tw · 2/25/2022 7:12 pm

henry_quirk wrote:
Vladimir played Joseph

Only an extremist would not see the chess game he is playing. He needs Trump back since Trump was so easy to manipulate, praised (and just recently again praised) Putin, even gave Putin some most sensitive secrets, literally gave Putin an open door in the Middle East, and now promoted by extremists who would blame Biden when Trump only helped Putin get where he is today. Only the brainwashed did not see how Trump so repeatedly advocated for Russia. Including threats to leave NATO. Since NATO does not "Make America Great Again' - according to our extremists.

Putin is also counting on NATOs inability (due to laws and treaties) to do nothing. So that extremists (the least informed) will blame Biden. All part if his chess game that also targets and so easily manipulates extremists.

henry_quirk · 2/25/2022 9:51 pm

tw wrote:
He needs Trump back

Absolutely. Biden -- that robust, decisive leader -- has Putin *runnin' for cover.

*in another universe...certainly not in this one

Happy Monkey · 2/26/2022 12:48 pm

He's playing Joseph, alright. Playing at being Joseph Stalin.

henry_quirk · 2/26/2022 1:26 pm

Happy Monkey wrote:
He's playing Joseph, alright. Playing at being Joseph Stalin.

I don't disagree. Now, what's Smokin' Joe the House Plant Biden gonna do about it?

glatt · 2/26/2022 2:18 pm

Biden is basically doing nothing because fighting Russia would hurt us as much as them. Putin knows there will be relatively few consequences to his actions. The US could always try to enter into a proxy war with Russia, like the many proxy wars we've had in the past with the USSR, but how do we arm the Ukrainian resistance? What would that look like? I don't even know.

In the meantime, sanctions are all we have,

tw · 2/27/2022 9:38 am

henry_quirk wrote:
Now, what's Smokin' Joe the House Plant Biden gonna do about it?

An extremist is quick to criticize. A patriot (a moderate) would say what could be done. Extremists only disparage. Contribute nothing. An extremist even posted that he only wants to "fuck up everything" - not build anything. Posted was another example of that reasoning.

Last edited by tw (2/27/2022 10:57 am)

tw · 2/27/2022 11:16 am

Henry Quirk would have us invading Ukraine to drive out the Russians. Understand what Macron saw in his long 'face to face' discussions with Putin. He is rigid and isolated. Is not the same person he knew two years ago. Merkel previously noted that Putin was living in another world.

All we did was implement sanctions. As a result, Putin has now put all nuclear forces on highest alert. If that means what it means in America, then an only next step is all out nuclear war.

How does one deal with a man that maniacal? Henry will tell us. Since he has said he only want to 'fuck up everything". Which also explains his passion for Trump. And man who has repeatedly praised Putin - even this week.

Highest that America came to nuclear war was Defcon 3. Only once. By the Nixon administration over an Arab Israeli war. Defcon 1 is nuclear war.

henry_quirk · 2/27/2022 11:46 am

glatt wrote:
Biden is basically doing nothing...

And I'm glad for that. Anything he does now is just throwin' gas on the fire.

Thing is: if he'd shut his mouth a month ago instead of waggin' the dog, Putin probably wouldn't be in Ukraine today.

The House Plant fingered the wrong sociopath solely to distract from his own incompetence and it went sour for him.