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12/06/2024 9:06 am  #1


How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

I'm curious about this topic.  I sense there will be HUGE changes in 2025 and any time there are dramatic changes, I think we each should be thinking about how we can maximize our chances to not just survive, but to thrive.

I think the following is likely, based on what I have heard:

1. Tariffs and deportation of agricultural and construction workers will cause very significant inflation on most goods and services in the USA

2. Many US stocks will plummet when consumers are focusing their spending on the bare essentials and stop purchasing non-essentials.  Jobs will also be lost in non-essential industries.

3. When/if the Republicans are successful in slashing the federal workforce, the DMV area will see a regional recession/depression that will especially hurt small local businesses and lower home values as many federal workers lose their jobs.

4. In a non-economic sense, anyone who is "different" or even female will feel unsafe

I'm sure there's more, but I don't mean for this to be a list of grievances or complaints.  I am really more interested in how best to address these things so we can come out on top.  I'm looking for positive suggestions 
 

 

12/06/2024 9:09 am  #2


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Yesterday, my wife and I donated $1,000 to the ACLU to help fund the legal resistance against the plans of the Republicans. (edit:  this is a lot of money for us, and I may regret it, but I am focusing on my values, and this is one of them)

And I'm trying to renew connections with my circle of friends locally.  I think the wedges that have been driven between americans to divide us need to be actively resisted, and the best way to do that is to build social bonds.  This is very minor, but after about 15 years of blowing this off, were sending Christmas cards again.

Last edited by glatt (12/06/2024 9:28 am)

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12/06/2024 9:14 am  #3


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Thinking financially, for myself, I worry about the balance of my 401K, which is mostly stocks, and the value of the US dollars in my nest egg.

I've been thinking of hedges against inflation and a market decline and came up with the following possibilities:

1. foreign stocks ETFs if those countries are not experiencing downturn as well
2.  Materials, Consumer Staples, and Utilities stocks
3. T-Bills, but timing is critical.  Have to wait for the rates to go up. And do NOT buy bond market funds.
4. Foreign currencies (Pound, Canadian Dollar, Euro, Australian Dollar, Singapore Dollar) if they are not experiencing inflation  - see Schwab's list of Currency ETFs:   FXA, FXB, FXC, FXE, FXY, FXF 
5. precious metals
see SPDR Gold Shares (GLD); iShares Gold Trust (IAU); VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX); Aberdeen Standard Gold ETF (SGOL)
6. Real Estate (aka REIT ETFs)  REITs are kinda evil though, even though they will likely be on fire.
7. Bitcoin
 

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12/06/2024 9:16 am  #4


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

I'd love to hear your thoughts on preparing for 2025.

We are also going to buy a new roof, if we can get it scheduled, as soon as possible.

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12/06/2024 9:20 am  #5


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

My belief is that the oligarchs are on the cusp of doing a massive money grab from the middle class, and I want to stick my arm out and scoop some of that wealth into my lap as it flows uphill.

The idea is the oligarchs crash the economy and then swoop in with their cash reserves and buy stocks and real estate at rock bottom prices, because they are the only ones with money on hand after the storm.

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12/07/2024 9:24 am  #6


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

I'm seeing things similarly.

We've moved some money out of the stock market and into our property up North. We signed a contract for our cabin kit and paid our down payment. Those materials should be in country before the likely upcoming economic contraction. I don't know how much of the lumber will be Canadian. Most of the stick lumber in my floor system was Canadian sourced since our local yard doesn't have a lot of production capacity.  We're doing as much as we can on our own but may tap the Amish for some work.

Community is a part of our planning. The northern place is not setup as well for gardening and animals but is better in neighborliness. 

We are both considering working at a reduced level in retirement. That could be more critical if the oligarchs wreck the stock market. We've always ridden these things out and gained from them so panic must be avoided. Market timing is not something I want to try. SS is being targeted and lately they've been floating ending it without a payout at all. This will force some belt tightening but we're better off than our age mates generally. 


If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis Brandeis
 

12/07/2024 1:21 pm  #7


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Ironically, I am looking forward to things getting worse.  Things had to get worse under Nixon before Americans starting becoming moderates again.  Trump installing the most incompetent extremist - loyal only to him and not to America - has become necessary for the many (educated by tweets and podcasts) to finally start learning how to think in an intelligent manner.

Perfect example was Saddam's WMDs.  How many so hated the American serviceman as to believe that obvious lie.  We need things to get real bad in the next four years.  Otherwise things will only continue to become worse in eight years.

How many are so ignorant as to not even know why Putin will be winning.  By doing what Hitler did.  And why Boeing started becoming an anti-American company over 20 years ago.
 

 

12/07/2024 1:26 pm  #8


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Trump got nowhere near a "landslide," but the fact that any one at all voted for him after his first go around is more than chilling.
He will take it as a mandate to do whatever he wants and collect as crazy a bunch of assholes as he can to help him.
How long our institutions can survive the onslaught is the only question.
The very small majorities in Congress gives some hope. Will there be enough sane Republicans to slow him down?
Kind of pessimistic, me.
 

 

12/07/2024 3:36 pm  #9


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Yeah, I'm beyond the Monday morning quarterbacking. Plenty of other places to gripe. Politics is pointless now.

What's the game plan to weather the storm?

I showed mine.  Let's see yours.

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12/07/2024 5:38 pm  #10


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

In a non-economic sense, anyone who is "different" or even female will feel unsafe

My daughter and I have established code words for certain situations she may find herself in, because 1.) some states have already made it a crime to travel to another state to do something entirely legal in that state, and 2.) tech companies have already turned over private messages between a mother and daughter discussing said situation, in order to help convict the mother as an accessory.
 

 

12/07/2024 5:55 pm  #11


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Read my signature, that says it all.


I Love my country, I fear the government.
 
 

12/07/2024 6:50 pm  #12


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

You may have gleaned from some of the above replies that this matter is age dependent, at least for anyone who doesn’t already have way more than enough money to last the rest of their lives. Conventional wisdom is that being retirement age means playing it safe with savings and just cutting losses rather than trying to succeed at greater risk. Don’t gamble with what you can’t afford to lose.

Increasing costs can easily outpace getting better investment returns. The value of avoiding price increases was recognized in expediting plans for a new roof and a cabin kit. Getting big ticket durable items now is good; but, don’t forget expendable and expendable-durable items. Price increases on those can nickel & dime you to death in little time. People of any age can benefit by stocking up on routinely used items at today’s prices. That includes consumables, clothing, small appliances, maintenance supplies… and anything else that may get used up or worn out over the next few years.

For example: Textiles - I have clothes for work and clothes for casual wear in my closet. I also already have a reserve of seven complete changes of cloths, suitable for either, stored away in a duffle bag so that when I need new cloths using those will give me time to shop for replacements at good prices rather than paying top dollar on the spur of the moment. Appliances - I already have some extra small appliances like an iron and coffee maker, items with heating elements that can burn out, put away in a storage basket. Many small appliances are made in China.

When inflation hits, it’s good to already have enough “stuff” to weather the increased cost of living. After that’s taken care of, then it’s time to speculate for succeeding. YMMV, as said earlier, it’s age dependent.

 

 

12/09/2024 9:01 am  #13


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Good stuff, Anon.  I forgot about clothes.  Fortunately, I don't chase fashion.  So anything i buy today I would be happy to wear in 10 years.

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12/09/2024 9:13 am  #14


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

Clodfobble wrote:

In a non-economic sense, anyone who is "different" or even female will feel unsafe

My daughter and I have established code words for certain situations she may find herself in, because 1.) some states have already made it a crime to travel to another state to do something entirely legal in that state, and 2.) tech companies have already turned over private messages between a mother and daughter discussing said situation, in order to help convict the mother as an accessory.
 

This is good.

I know almost nothing about these things, but my wife was talking about stocking up on Plan B or whatever the various medications are and getting a little stockpile together to distribute as needed in case they are outlawed. We are too old to need it for ourselves.

Over the counter pregnancy tests are confidential, and if they go away then every pregnancy will be in the system and monitored by the government.  Maybe stock up on a handful of tests and Plan B.  Or Mifepristone  (If I Googled that correctly just now.)

My brother lives in Canada, and as long as the border stays open, then my family members can always take family visits to see him.

 

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12/09/2024 3:25 pm  #15


Re: How to position yourself to survive and even succeed in 2025

I second the clothes thing. I’m pretty much jeans and t-shirts so that shouldn’t be bad. There’s a good thrift store near the new place with a remarkable amount of stock. I’ve noticed some of the urban ones are about fashion so you need to check these places out to measure their value.


If you would only recognize that life is hard, things would be so much easier for you. - Louis Brandeis
 

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