This is why maps for flood plains should not be ignored.  "Oh.  It did not happen in my lifetime.  So it will never happen."

Most concerning at the maybe 20 girls in a summer camp washed away - maybe dead.

Insurance companies are just as complicit.  Their actuaries are telling them wheret things should not be built (insured). Or how those must be built.  For floods.  Fires.  Or how it must be built.  But it did not happen in 30 years.  So we want the profits.


Looking at maps that show both building and flood lines, I am rather surprised how many towns pay attention.

Remember what happened to Graphton IL.  They listened to Clinton.  After the flood, they move the town up the hill. Another flood happened two years later.  Completely flooded where the old town once was.  And the few idiots who did not move.

I used to camp by the Guadalupe river. I never would have expected it to rise 26 feet in 45 minutes.

I can't even imagine what a river rising 26 feet would look like, in any amount of minutes.

Mind-blowing video of the flood:
Shocking video shows how quickly the Texas flood waters rose over 20 feet in as little as 37 minutes

Demonstrated is why the NWS issued flash flood alerts.  River gauges detect the condition before it becomes a flood.  Maps are already existing for where floods will always do damage.

In every picture seen, the house, camps, RV, etc were in dangerous locations for any flooding.  That is why mobile phones all start beeping when flooding can happen.

From Politico: 

The National Weather Service issued timely alerts, meteorologists say, but few were listening in the hours before the early morning flash floods.

NWS issued warning at around 1 PM.  Then flood watches a few hours later.  Followed by flash flood warning just after midnight.  The flood peaked two hours later.

Looking at where Camp Mystic and other camps were located - right on the river on totally flat land.   Barely above the river. They should have been evacuating that night.  Apparently they did get a number of girls out.  But waited too long.  Especially in cabins that should never been that close to the river.

That is probably not the first time that flooding did damage to those camps and RV parks.  One would expect management to be thinking.

But this is not about people.  This is about facts - known and ignored.  A major difference.  And discussed ONLY  because we all are expected to demand such facts.  So as to learn.

What says death may be imminent?  So many don't learn this.  Instead use emotions to somehow know.  If water is half way up wheels of a vehicle, then death is a real possibility.
 

Last edited by tw (7/08/2025 6:59 pm)

Guadalupe River has two branches that meet in Hunt Tx.  Only the North branch has a river gauge.  It saw flooding starting at 1:15 AM.  Peaking at 18 feet at 5:30 AM.  Hunt then saw flooding start at 2 AM.  The gauge failed (apparently due to flooding of 30 feet at 5:00 AM.

Gauge 12 miles downriver in Kerrville went from no flooding to over 30 foot peak between 4:45 and 6:15 AM.  Most of that peak was up and down in less than 15 minutes.

Based upon those numbers, flooding in Camp Mystic probably started at 1 AM.  And peaked about 4 AM.  And was completely gone by 6 AM.

How much rain was upstream?  I have seen but cannot confirm numbers for land that feeds the South branch and those local creeks at 20 inches of rain.  But rain gauges, over tens miles away, only show rain on 3 July ending in the morning of 4 July. Ending over 12 hours before the flooding.  Implying this was a massive and tiny rainstorm in a tiny area.  Mostly in an area where NWS data devices do not exist.
 

Last edited by tw (7/08/2025 6:57 pm)

It's worth noting that while the Mystic girls are getting most of the coverage, several other small towns across the state have been completely wiped, death toll still to be determined.

A pair of siblings at our summer camp this week lost their grandmother in flooding less than 30 minutes outside Austin.

Camp Mystic was a first upstream camp.  Others downstream did not have many deaths.  Same thing happened in an adjacent county in 2015.  Killing 13 adults and two children.  Counties (including Kerr) are at highest risk.  Since flash floods in this region occur with greater energy.

In 2017, the county was granted funds from FEMA to install a warning system.  Sirens (similar to tornado warning sirens) did not exist.  Some county commissions stifled the money.  Saying they did not want to take money from Obama's administration. Did not want to create false alarms that would wake up people at night. And then used this reasoning to obstruct a warning system.  (Such mentalities are called MBAs.  Experts without training, knowledge, numbers, or experience.  Somehow feelings are proof.)

Existing warning system was a telephone daisy chain from camps to downstream camps.  Commissioners insisted this was sufficient.  Worked fine.  Therefore that warning system was always sufficient.  Then included claims that a warning system would not work without cooperation from adjacent counties.

No warning other than the few who had warnings from mobile phones.  Many in the flood said no such warning was received.

Bottom line.  Local officials knew their terrain makes flash floods extremely dangerous.  An engineering study by the county confirmed it.  But commissioners who stifled it claimed they were smarter then responsible folks.  Knew better - without a single reason why.  Decided the existing daisy chain phone calls between camps had always worked.  Therefore  nothing  need be done.

Also were many residents along the South branch of the Guadalupe and down river at Center Point and Comfort. Flood exceeded 40 feet when a river gauge failed.  Flood remained for almost 100 miles downriver to Sattler, TX .  Death was only to the fewest who lived right on the river..  Had no warning methods.  Especially since many were only summer rentals.

Point remains.  Not to blame people.  But to blame reasoning, denials,  and "I am smarter than others" logic that made this all so tragic.

Both Cypress and Edmunton Creeks entered the Guadalupe at Camp Mystic.  Unknown is  how much rain was up in those mountains.  Nor how much damage was a flood racing down into a flat plane about 10 feet above the river.  Just above that height were cabins for 6 through 9 year old girls.

More perspective.   Of some 700 girls, maybe 30 were killed.  Apparently the camp's director died trying to rescue those few.  It could have been much worse. 

More perspective.  Director for the second girls camp downriver (Heart O' the Hills) was also killed.  Their camp was between sessions - had no campers.   Apparently a daisy chain did not work.  It could have been worse.

Camp La Junta, closest to Hunt TX, had campers who woke up  with water already in their beds.  Eventually all climbed into the cabln's rafters until it was considered safe enough to swim.  A working warning system had at maybe a hour to warn those campers.  After Camp Mystic was devastated.

Coast Guard dispatched their on duty helicopter from  Corpus Christi; about 150 miles away.  Rain was so  violent that four attempts, including airborne refueling, were necessary before they could deploy their rescue swimmer to Camp Mystic.  Storm  was that violent.
 

glatt wrote:

I'm sleeping during those times.  And when I'm camping, I usually don't have cell service, and my phone would be off at night to save battery.

Typically, I choose to camp in nature, not in built up areas.  And campgrounds tend to be near rivers away from cities.

I'd likely be dead.  Drowned in my sleeping bag in a zipped up tent.

 
We all need to assess risk differently now. (Of course I have just entered my 5th week living in a tent. So maybe my risk tolerance is a little off.)

Anon wrote:

glatt wrote:

…I'd likely be dead.  Drowned in my sleeping bag in a zipped up tent.

I call first dibs on glatt’s stuff.
 

You're gonna need a bigger boat.

It was a 30 foot wave that went for 100 miles through Texas.  A surfers dream.  Opportunity missed.  Because the NWS failed to predict it.
 

Last edited by tw (7/09/2025 9:44 pm)