This is what happens when you fire all the meteorologists, and people stop paying attention to the weather.

I would like to see the forecasts for the day or two before that night's storm.
With today's weather resources, somebody absolutely should have seen it coming!
Actually, I bet somebody, or maybe many, saw it coming and the "authorities" ignored it.
This is going to be major story for months, with the buck ending up where it will be lied about and buried. 

Diaphone Jim wrote:

Mind-blowing video of the flood:
Shocking video shows how quickly the Texas flood waters rose over 20 feet in as little as 37 minutes

Holy shit! At first I was thinking, "well, at least you could hang on to the trees.." ..but NOPE the trees start coming down. Then it's just an ocean of water that goes ALL THE WAY UP TO THE OVERPASS. jfc
 

Guadalupe River has two branches that meet in Hunt Tx.  Only the North branch has a river gauge.  It saw flooding starting at 1:15 AM.  Peaking at 18 feet at 5:30 AM.  Hunt then saw flooding start at 2 AM.  The gauge failed (apparently due to flooding of 30 feet at 5:00 AM.

Gauge 12 miles downriver in Kerrville went from no flooding to over 30 foot peak between 4:45 and 6:15 AM.  Most of that peak was up and down in less than 15 minutes.

Based upon those numbers, flooding in Camp Mystic probably started at 1 AM.  And peaked about 4 AM.  And was completely gone by 6 AM.

How much rain was upstream?  I have seen but cannot confirm numbers for land that feeds the South branch and those local creeks at 20 inches of rain.  But rain gauges, over tens miles away, only show rain on 3 July ending in the morning of 4 July. Ending over 12 hours before the flooding.  Implying this was a massive and tiny rainstorm in a tiny area.  Mostly in an area where NWS data devices do not exist.
 

Last edited by tw (7/08/2025 6:57 pm)

It's worth noting that while the Mystic girls are getting most of the coverage, several other small towns across the state have been completely wiped, death toll still to be determined.

A pair of siblings at our summer camp this week lost their grandmother in flooding less than 30 minutes outside Austin.

Camp Mystic was a first upstream camp.  Others downstream did not have many deaths.  Same thing happened in an adjacent county in 2015.  Killing 13 adults and two children.  Counties (including Kerr) are at highest risk.  Since flash floods in this region occur with greater energy.

In 2017, the county was granted funds from FEMA to install a warning system.  Sirens (similar to tornado warning sirens) did not exist.  Some county commissions stifled the money.  Saying they did not want to take money from Obama's administration. Did not want to create false alarms that would wake up people at night. And then used this reasoning to obstruct a warning system.  (Such mentalities are called MBAs.  Experts without training, knowledge, numbers, or experience.  Somehow feelings are proof.)

Existing warning system was a telephone daisy chain from camps to downstream camps.  Commissioners insisted this was sufficient.  Worked fine.  Therefore that warning system was always sufficient.  Then included claims that a warning system would not work without cooperation from adjacent counties.

No warning other than the few who had warnings from mobile phones.  Many in the flood said no such warning was received.

Bottom line.  Local officials knew their terrain makes flash floods extremely dangerous.  An engineering study by the county confirmed it.  But commissioners who stifled it claimed they were smarter then responsible folks.  Knew better - without a single reason why.  Decided the existing daisy chain phone calls between camps had always worked.  Therefore  nothing  need be done.

Also were many residents along the South branch of the Guadalupe and down river at Center Point and Comfort. Flood exceeded 40 feet when a river gauge failed.  Flood remained for almost 100 miles downriver to Sattler, TX .  Death was only to the fewest who lived right on the river..  Had no warning methods.  Especially since many were only summer rentals.

Point remains.  Not to blame people.  But to blame reasoning, denials,  and "I am smarter than others" logic that made this all so tragic.

Both Cypress and Edmunton Creeks entered the Guadalupe at Camp Mystic.  Unknown is  how much rain was up in those mountains.  Nor how much damage was a flood racing down into a flat plane about 10 feet above the river.  Just above that height were cabins for 6 through 9 year old girls.

More perspective.   Of some 700 girls, maybe 30 were killed.  Apparently the camp's director died trying to rescue those few.  It could have been much worse. 

More perspective.  Director for the second girls camp downriver (Heart O' the Hills) was also killed.  Their camp was between sessions - had no campers.   Apparently a daisy chain did not work.  It could have been worse.

Camp La Junta, closest to Hunt TX, had campers who woke up  with water already in their beds.  Eventually all climbed into the cabln's rafters until it was considered safe enough to swim.  A working warning system had at maybe a hour to warn those campers.  After Camp Mystic was devastated.

Coast Guard dispatched their on duty helicopter from  Corpus Christi; about 150 miles away.  Rain was so  violent that four attempts, including airborne refueling, were necessary before they could deploy their rescue swimmer to Camp Mystic.  Storm  was that violent.
 

Anon wrote:

I call first dibs on glatt’s stuff. 

He's not even waiting for reading of the will.

Probate can take an average of eight to twelve months for asset distribution to occur.  Some just cannot wait.

It was a 30 foot wave that went for 100 miles through Texas.  A surfers dream.  Opportunity missed.  Because the NWS failed to predict it.
 

Last edited by tw (7/09/2025 9:44 pm)